DSLR sales continue their slow death march while Mirrorless holds steady
The beginning of the year did not look too well for the photo industry. Sales were down (almost across the board) for apparently little reason. But now that the year has progressed we are starting to see numbers in terms of shipments much more around the numbers we expected. This is good news for the industry overall, as it shows people are still buying interchangeable lens cameras. But the numbers also show that while Mirrorless ILC sales remained somewhat steady, DSLR sales continued their downward spiral; again, as expected.
It is actually an interesting thing: many people continue to point to Mirrorless ILC market share increasing as some point regarding Mirrorless superiority. In reality, as you can see based on the official numbers, Mirrorless sales are actually holding steady, while DSLR sales are falling steadily, which results in Mirrorless shipments accounting for more market share. This says less about the capability and performance of Mirrorless cameras and more about the declining demand for big and bulky DSLR ecosystems.
Sony and Fujifilm aren’t running away with the game here, in fact they are holding pretty steady. This is all fine and good, but the interesting thing to consider is how this whole dynamic will shift once Canon and Nikon enter Mirrorless in a big way. That could come as soon as later this year, or early next year if the current rumors and reports are to be believed and timetables don’t shift. Say what you will about Canon and Nikon being too slow to adapt, but the fact is that they bring with them industry legitimacy. There are still people out there who are convinced, despite overwhelming evidence, that Mirrorless technology is inferior to DSLR tech.
These people will not give Mirrorless any chance until they get a true, professional level full frame mirrorless offering from the big two to legitimize the industry that Sony and Fujifilm have built. So, not only will we likely see a big uptick in Mirrorless shipments at that point from direct sales of the Canon and Nikon offerings, but as well from those who can then ‘trust’ mirrorless because Canon and Nikon finally changed their tunes.
But I am getting ahead of myself: That is all a ways off. What the numbers show now are that Mirrorless is holding steady and DSLR is continuing its slow death march. Digging further into the numbers, in terms of regions, we still see this interesting market makeup in North America that bucks the trend of the rest of the world (I know, such a surprise). Despite all of the press, and the huge marketing push Sony has made with their full frame mirrorless system, North American consumers still choose to go with a DSLR.
Maybe it is preference, maybe it is familiarity, maybe it is ignorance. In reality it is likely a little bit of all three of those things. But the point is, despite what the hype suggests, the Mirrorless segment isn’t really growing, it’s just holding steady. The only reason this matters is because the DSLR segment continues to drop. So is ‘Mirrorless Hype’ a thing? In some ways, it certainly isn’t translating into significant growth for the industry.
Check out Canon News for some great analysis on these latest CIPA numbers for 2018.
